A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
