Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a ability afforded by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
